The anatomy of the January 19 - February 1 record-breaking southeast Australian heatwave. Should we name extreme heatwaves like we name tropical cyclones?

RGSQ Lecture Series

Stephen M. Turton PhD, DFIAG

Adjunct Professor of Environmental Geography (Climatology), Research Division, Central Queensland University

Southeastern Australia has experienced an exceptional and historic heatwave, with hundreds of thousands of people exposed to prolonged and extreme temperatures. Beginning on January 24, the event has broken multiple all-time temperature records across South Australia, New South Wales and Victoria. New 50°C records were recorded in South Australia at Andamooka and Port Augusta, followed by 49.8°C at Marree also in South Australia, and 49.7°C  at Pooncarie in New South Wales. The Australian record of 50.7°C is shared with Oodnadatta in South Australia (January 2, 1960) and Onslow in Western Australia (Jan 13, 2022). The latest heatwave was the most severe since the Black Summer of 2019–20, when intense heat played a critical role in catastrophic bushfires that burned 21% of Australia’s forests. While formal attribution studies are pending, an earlier heatwave in southeast Australia (January 5-10) was found to be more than five times more likely due to global heating, suggesting climate change is amplifying the severity of current conditions. The recent heatwave was undoubtedly more severe and prolonged.

The latest heatwave was driven by a combination of intense heat generation that began in the Pilbara before shifting southeast, active monsoonal activity in northern Australia, and a persistent blocking high-pressure system several km above the surface, centred over the southeast inland. This configuration funnelled hot, dry air from Australia’s arid interior into the south and southeast, displacing cooler Southern Ocean air and suppressing rainfall. Subsiding air within the blocking high formed a "heat dome", that intensified surface temperatures, producing dangerously hot days and nights. As global air and ocean temperatures continue to rise, events of this scale are expected to become more frequent and severe, highlighting the urgent need for improved heatwave preparedness, public health responses and long-term climate adaptation alongside carbon emissions reduction.

Biography: Stephen Turton is an Adjunct Professor of Environmental Geography at Central Queensland University, Australia. Formerly Professor of Geography at James Cook University, he has over four decades of academic, research and leadership experience. His research spans climate change impacts and adaptation across tourism, agriculture, natural resource management and protected areas, particularly in Australia and the Asia–Pacific. Turton has published more than 140 scientific papers, supervised over 40 graduate research students, contributed to IPCC assessments, and is a regular media commentator and author for The Conversation. He is the author of Surviving the Climate Crisis: Australian Perspectives and Solutions (Taylor and Francis, London and New York, published in 2023). The title of his forthcoming book is Shifting Climate Zones: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly for Australia (Anthem Press, London and New York).