El Nino

El Nino: Hype and Hope the Australian Way

The author of this article is Peter Hastings, Queensland University of Technology, School of Humanities, Beams Road Carseldine Q 4034

A recent editorial from the respected Environmental and Societal Impacts Group of the (US) National Centre for Atmospheric Research conceptualised El Niño forecasts in terms of "hype" and "hope" (Network Newsletter, vol.13, no. 2). Editor Michael Glantz argued that while heightened media (and public) interest in El Niño and weather hazards during the 1997-98 El Niño event manifested itself in scare stories and hype, the exposure has at least increased awareness of El Niño "among the lay public that ensures that it and its representatives will take more seriously a forecast of the next El Niño around the turn of the century." (p.1).

In Australia over the last year, El Niño was regularly cast by the popular media as the villain behind experiences of adverse weather. It was also dissected by specialist publications ranging from rural periodicals to a surfing magazine. It even entered our advertising culture via ads for woollen socks, motor cars and pork! Such exposure builds upon the publicity of the early-mid 1990s in promoting public awareness, but the key question becomes: is the substance of this emerging public awareness conducive to realising the potential benefits of El Niño-based forecasts/ information (ie. the "hope")? This "perception perspective" is pertinent given that there is now little scientific doubt that El Niño/ Southern Oscillation information can contribute to improved, systematic risk management in several Australian agricultural production situations and locations. It is a matter of decision-makers strategically and correctly interpreting and applying the information with objectives of long-term economic and ecological sustainability.

Among other issues, the "hype or hope" view of El Niño forecasting and/or related information serves to direct attention to matters that involve communication, education, and individuals' perception processes; particularly the roles of these factors in prompting responses that are congruous with the potential of forecasts or indicators. Some of the interrelated concerns in this regard are: (a) how to effectively extend information to the public about a complex and variable phenomena while avoiding oversimplification and generating damaging hype; (b) how to communicate forecast/information uncertainty; and (c) how to deal with conflicting information, including perceptions of a "bad" forecast. Rural extension and risk communication literatures generally suggest that errors by the communicators in either of these spheres can foster misunderstanding, misuse and perceptions of diminished information (forecast) credibility among users. Any of these outcomes erode the potential usefulness of the data as perceived by "users".

Several difficulties in the above contexts, possibly to the detriment of El Niño credibility, arose in Australia during the El Niño event of 1997-98.

Australian El Niño hype arguably reached a peak over July-September 1997 when local media, commonly fuelled by zealous overseas reports, touted the event as possibly the biggest on record and linked its occurrence to potentially devastating global and Australian impacts. For example, the Brisbane Courier Mail (Sept. 16 1997) dedicated a full feature page to El Niño under the sub-headline:"Australian primary producers are preparing for another horror El Niño season, with widespread droughts predicted" (p.9). An accompanying overseas "wire" story dubbed the event "the climatic event of the century, unleashing drought, floods and snowstorms..." (p.9). While the attention certainly raised the public profile of El Niño, the themes of pessimism sat uncomfortably with a rural sector still looking to recover from previous adversities.

Perhaps unexpectedly, from the viewpoint of climate professionals, a community perception emerged that painted scientists and forecasters as merchants of doom and gloom... talking down prospects for rural Australia (e.g. Queensland Country Life, 18-9-97, p.14). The effect flowed into the political domain with the Queensland treasurer of the time, Joan Sheldon, allegedly questioning the prudence of the El Niño prophecies. Climate information disseminators such as the Queensland DPI, who had taken care in providing outlooks based on probabilities and informed analysis appeared singed, and the situation emerged as being potentially harmful to El Niño's credibility (and hence erode the chances of appropriate adjustments being made). In response to this, key rural leaders and some media felt the need (presumably for the greater good?) to step up and defend the legitimate forecasters and extension operatives. Editorials and comments parried with arguments of discretion and "don't shoot the messenger". Among the champions were former Queensland Graingrowers Association president, and political aspirant, Ian Mc Farlaine and the editor of rural Queensland's Queensland Country Life (QCL) newspaper (e.g. QCL 18-9-97, p.14; QCL 11-9-97, p.7). DPI forecasters themselves attempted to moderate the general perceptions of widespread disaster by clarifying the relative importance of El Niño to Australian rainfall among the many influences (ie El Niño does not mean "no rain at all"). They also reinforced the need for the public to recognise the inherent uncertainties of statistical predictions and formats. These ideals are reflected by the Queensland DPI's El Niño-Southern Oscillation-based forecast statements over this period on their phone/ fax/ internet "DPI SOI Hotline".

As the spring/summer of 1997-98 rolled on, a new conflict crept over the landscape. This time the conflict was born from physical realities. "Apparent" discrepancies loomed between the forecast statements and maps (which indicated that for much of Queensland, the probabilities of exceeding median summer rainfall were well below 50%) and the emerging seasonal rainfall patterns. While probabilistically expressed forecasts cannot hence be judged as having been either right or wrong, perception-based research indicates that lay individuals' subjective interpretations of this information does conjure personal images of likely conditions. These can then provide the basis for a response and/or comparisons with subsequent, actual conditions (e.g Hastings, P.A. 1994, PhD thesis, Univ.of Qld).

The northern wet season of 1997-98 was pronounced. Widespread flooding over the Top End (including at Townsville), the Gulf country and Katherine received wide publicity. Inspection of the Bureau of Meteorology's rainfall deficiency data, incorporating falls between 1 October 1997 and 31 March 1998, reveals that only a restricted area of coastal central Queensland experienced a serious rainfall deficiency at worst. It should be recognised, however, that conditions were dry over many areas of Queensland before this period, and that the rainfalls subsequently received were commonly inadequate to lift drought declarations. According to the data, El Niño's bite was most apparent further south, spanning the southern tablelands of NSW and into eastern Victoria. Over the summer season of November-December-January, most of northern, central-western and southwestern Queensland received above-average to very much above-average rainfall (decile 8 and above... that is, rainfall totals in the top 20% of rainfall records for the particular location and period). With few exceptions, Queensland's remainder received around average falls (decile 4-7... totals in the mid-range of the rainfall records). Only strips of coastal central Queensland and the tip of Cape York failed to gain near-average totals. In short, while El Niño-related information was generally weighting the probabilities towards a below-average rainfall season, conditions were commonly average or above.

Simplistic concepts and indicators of El Niño would not have helped "users" to rationalise the emerging seasonal situation, given the predictions. The Southern Oscillation Index or SOI is widely promoted as an indicator of the El Niño Southern Oscillation state (the term given to the complete ocean-atmosphere phenomena) and is the basis of popular forecasting methodologies. Its relative simplicity, accessibility and broad relationships to rainfall variability make it attractive as a focus of extension strategies. At the "low end" of conceptualisation, negative SOI are more commonly associated with drier-than-normal conditions over many areas of eastern Australia, and vice versa for positive SOI. At this level of understanding, consider the puzzlement of "users" with the advent of average to well-above-average falls over Queensland in association with deeply negative SOI values for November (-14), December (-11) and January (-22)! Even for the more El Niño Southern Oscillation aware, similarly perplexing relationships would have been apparent. That is, the "SOI Phase", as used by Queensland DPI, was falling and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures remained well above normal... conditions usually incongruent with high probabilities of above average rainfall over many areas. Only those with the access to and/or a true understanding of environmental uncertainties, probabilities, specialist advice and long-term risk assessment perspectives could reasonably rationalise such conflicts. For others there is likely to be a strong temptation, based on simplistic concepts and subjective perceptions, to mark the summer forecasts as simply having been "wrong".

During the summer, leakages of forecast scepticism and disgruntlement provided new media fodder. For example, the Queensland Country Life (26-2-98, p.2) reported a "Phantom El Niño at Miles", describing the negative impacts resulting from two producers de-stocking for the summer in response to rainfall predictions, and then receiving well above average falls... costing "money in the bank". At worst the sceptics, notably those with alternate commercial forecasting interests, pounced upon the opportunities afforded by the "hype" and the forecast/reality discrepancies to publicly criticise El Niño-based seasonal climate forecasting and forecasters for "getting it wrong" (e.g. Brisbane Extra, Nine Network, 10-3-98; Midday, Nine Network, 24-2-98). The problem here is the potential for the "good science" of El Niño-based research and its public persona of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting to lose ground to scientifically unverified methodologies and practitioners who peddle "the answers".

Communicators (including forecasters and extension personnel) who are serious about realising the "hope" of El-Niño-based information/forecasting can learn from the 97-98 event and hone their strategies. Advancing "simplicity" and/or "hype" as catalysts for interest and/or adoption seems a risky tactic given the uncertainties inherent in the environmental relationships that underpin El Niño and climate. While the above approach may be effective in maximising the diffusion of a basic awareness, it relies on users exploring the further complexities at a later time in order to gain the full picture. In the meantime, however, bitter experience may intervene.

The hazard of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and its impacts are complex and uncertain. There are temporal and geographical dimensions to its degrees of influence and impact, and of course, inherent uncertainties in its behaviours and effects. In fact, no two El Niño events are exactly the same. Only with these tools of knowledge can information users critically sort the media hype from the fact, deal with conflict, rationalise uncertainty and El Niño Southern Oscillation vagaries, and ultimately realise the hope that forecasts offer for better decision-making in the long term.

The close evaluation of extension strategies and the coordination of communication and extension efforts, including close liaison with the media, can help ensure that the "hope" which El Niño-based information/forecasting offers can be harnessed. This, however, should be executed without compromising the democratic principle of a free media, and should be open to the range of opinion being voiced and debated, without discrimination. It should be the aim of forecasters, communicators and extension operatives to effectively arm "users" with the knowledge, skills and support to rationally interpret and evaluate alternative forecasts and methodologies, and the inherent uncertainties and risks associated with the forecasts and outcomes. The principles of sustainable development command "access" and "equity" in the provision of information and extension, and in the realisation of its benefits. But of course lurking behind these ideals are the driving realities of short decision horizons, resource allocation priorities, irrationality, politics, commerce and kudos.

Finally, the challenges described above are now faced by the newly formed Queensland Centre for Climate Applications. The Centre's charter, as reported amidst its full page promotion in the Queensland Country Life, includes pursuing the development of a "really vigorous" extension program in relation to climatic variability (QCL 26-3-98). The test of success will come with the next wobble of the El Niño Southern Oscillation system. Hype or hope?

Last updated 2 October 2006. For more information email admin@rgsq.org.au
Return to home


El Nino: Hype and Hope the Australian Way
The author of this article is Peter Hastings, Queensland University of Technology, School of Humanities, Beams Road Carseldine Q 4034 A recent editorial from the respected Environmental and Societal Impacts Group of the (US) National Centre for Atmospheric Research conceptualised El Niño forecasts in terms of "hype" and "hope" (Network Newsletter, vol.13, no. 2). Editor Michael Glantz argued that while heightened media (and public) interest in El Niño and weather hazards during the 1997-98 El Niño event manifested itself in scare stories and hype, the exposure has at least increased awareness of El Niño "among the lay public that ensures that it and its representatives will take more seriously a forecast of the next El Niño around the turn of the century." (p.1). In Australia over the last year, El Niño was regularly cast by the popular media as the villain behind experiences of adverse weather. It was also dissected by specialist publications ranging from rural periodicals to a surfing magazine. It even entered our advertising culture via ads for woollen socks, motor cars and pork! Such exposure builds upon the publicity of the early-mid 1990s in promoting public awareness, but the key question becomes: is the substance of this emerging public awareness conducive to realising the potential benefits of El Niño-based forecasts/ information (ie. the "hope")? This "perception perspective" is pertinent given that there is now little scientific doubt that El Niño/ Southern Oscillation information can contribute to improved, systematic risk management in several Australian agricultural production situations and locations. It is a matter of decision-makers strategically and correctly interpreting and applying the information with objectives of long-term economic and ecological sustainability. Among other issues, the "hype or hope" view of El Niño forecasting and/or related information serves to direct attention to matters that involve communication, education, and individuals' perception processes; particularly the roles of these factors in prompting responses that are congruous with the potential of forecasts or indicators. Some of the interrelated concerns in this regard are: (a) how to effectively extend information to the public about a complex and variable phenomena while avoiding oversimplification and generating damaging hype; (b) how to communicate forecast/information uncertainty; and (c) how to deal with conflicting information, including perceptions of a "bad" forecast. Rural extension and risk communication literatures generally suggest that errors by the communicators in either of these spheres can foster misunderstanding, misuse and perceptions of diminished information (forecast) credibility among users. Any of these outcomes erode the potential usefulness of the data as perceived by "users". Several difficulties in the above contexts, possibly to the detriment of El Niño credibility, arose in Australia during the El Niño event of 1997-98. Australian El Niño hype arguably reached a peak over July-September 1997 when local media, commonly fuelled by zealous overseas reports, touted the event as possibly the biggest on record and linked its occurrence to potentially devastating global and Australian impacts. For example, the Brisbane Courier Mail (Sept. 16 1997) dedicated a full feature page to El Niño under the sub-headline:"Australian primary producers are preparing for another horror El Niño season, with widespread droughts predicted" (p.9). An accompanying overseas "wire" story dubbed the event "the climatic event of the century, unleashing drought, floods and snowstorms..." (p.9). While the attention certainly raised the public profile of El Niño, the themes of pessimism sat uncomfortably with a rural sector still looking to recover from previous adversities. Perhaps unexpectedly, from the viewpoint of climate professionals, a community perception emerged that painted scientists and forecasters as merchants of doom and gloom... talking down prospects for rural Australia (e.g. Queensland Country Life, 18-9-97, p.14). The effect flowed into the political domain with the Queensland treasurer of the time, Joan Sheldon, allegedly questioning the prudence of the El Niño prophecies. Climate information disseminators such as the Queensland DPI, who had taken care in providing outlooks based on probabilities and informed analysis appeared singed, and the situation emerged as being potentially harmful to El Niño's credibility (and hence erode the chances of appropriate adjustments being made). In response to this, key rural leaders and some media felt the need (presumably for the greater good?) to step up and defend the legitimate forecasters and extension operatives. Editorials and comments parried with arguments of discretion and "don't shoot the messenger". Among the champions were former Queensland Graingrowers Association president, and political aspirant, Ian Mc Farlaine and the editor of rural Queensland's Queensland Country Life (QCL) newspaper (e.g. QCL 18-9-97, p.14; QCL 11-9-97, p.7). DPI forecasters themselves attempted to moderate the general perceptions of widespread disaster by clarifying the relative importance of El Niño to Australian rainfall among the many influences (ie El Niño does not mean "no rain at all"). They also reinforced the need for the public to recognise the inherent uncertainties of statistical predictions and formats. These ideals are reflected by the Queensland DPI's El Niño-Southern Oscillation-based forecast statements over this period on their phone/ fax/ internet "DPI SOI Hotline". As the spring/summer of 1997-98 rolled on, a new conflict crept over the landscape. This time the conflict was born from physical realities. "Apparent" discrepancies loomed between the forecast statements and maps (which indicated that for much of Queensland, the probabilities of exceeding median summer rainfall were well below 50%) and the emerging seasonal rainfall patterns. While probabilistically expressed forecasts cannot hence be judged as having been either right or wrong, perception-based research indicates that lay individuals' subjective interpretations of this information does conjure personal images of likely conditions. These can then provide the basis for a response and/or comparisons with subsequent, actual conditions (e.g Hastings, P.A. 1994, PhD thesis, Univ.of Qld). The northern wet season of 1997-98 was pronounced. Widespread flooding over the Top End (including at Townsville), the Gulf country and Katherine received wide publicity. Inspection of the Bureau of Meteorology's rainfall deficiency data, incorporating falls between 1 October 1997 and 31 March 1998, reveals that only a restricted area of coastal central Queensland experienced a serious rainfall deficiency at worst. It should be recognised, however, that conditions were dry over many areas of Queensland before this period, and that the rainfalls subsequently received were commonly inadequate to lift drought declarations. According to the data, El Niño's bite was most apparent further south, spanning the southern tablelands of NSW and into eastern Victoria. Over the summer season of November-December-January, most of northern, central-western and southwestern Queensland received above-average to very much above-average rainfall (decile 8 and above... that is, rainfall totals in the top 20% of rainfall records for the particular location and period). With few exceptions, Queensland's remainder received around average falls (decile 4-7... totals in the mid-range of the rainfall records). Only strips of coastal central Queensland and the tip of Cape York failed to gain near-average totals. In short, while El Niño-related information was generally weighting the probabilities towards a below-average rainfall season, conditions were commonly average or above. Simplistic concepts and indicators of El Niño would not have helped "users" to rationalise the emerging seasonal situation, given the predictions. The Southern Oscillation Index or SOI is widely promoted as an indicator of the El Niño Southern Oscillation state (the term given to the complete ocean-atmosphere phenomena) and is the basis of popular forecasting methodologies. Its relative simplicity, accessibility and broad relationships to rainfall variability make it attractive as a focus of extension strategies. At the "low end" of conceptualisation, negative SOI are more commonly associated with drier-than-normal conditions over many areas of eastern Australia, and vice versa for positive SOI. At this level of understanding, consider the puzzlement of "users" with the advent of average to well-above-average falls over Queensland in association with deeply negative SOI values for November (-14), December (-11) and January (-22)! Even for the more El Niño Southern Oscillation aware, similarly perplexing relationships would have been apparent. That is, the "SOI Phase", as used by Queensland DPI, was falling and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures remained well above normal... conditions usually incongruent with high probabilities of above average rainfall over many areas. Only those with the access to and/or a true understanding of environmental uncertainties, probabilities, specialist advice and long-term risk assessment perspectives could reasonably rationalise such conflicts. For others there is likely to be a strong temptation, based on simplistic concepts and subjective perceptions, to mark the summer forecasts as simply having been "wrong". During the summer, leakages of forecast scepticism and disgruntlement provided new media fodder. For example, the Queensland Country Life (26-2-98, p.2) reported a "Phantom El Niño at Miles", describing the negative impacts resulting from two producers de-stocking for the summer in response to rainfall predictions, and then receiving well above average falls... costing "money in the bank". At worst the sceptics, notably those with alternate commercial forecasting interests, pounced upon the opportunities afforded by the "hype" and the forecast/reality discrepancies to publicly criticise El Niño-based seasonal climate forecasting and forecasters for "getting it wrong" (e.g. Brisbane Extra, Nine Network, 10-3-98; Midday, Nine Network, 24-2-98). The problem here is the potential for the "good science" of El Niño-based research and its public persona of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting to lose ground to scientifically unverified methodologies and practitioners who peddle "the answers". Communicators (including forecasters and extension personnel) who are serious about realising the "hope" of El-Niño-based information/forecasting can learn from the 97-98 event and hone their strategies. Advancing "simplicity" and/or "hype" as catalysts for interest and/or adoption seems a risky tactic given the uncertainties inherent in the environmental relationships that underpin El Niño and climate. While the above approach may be effective in maximising the diffusion of a basic awareness, it relies on users exploring the further complexities at a later time in order to gain the full picture. In the meantime, however, bitter experience may intervene. The hazard of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and its impacts are complex and uncertain. There are temporal and geographical dimensions to its degrees of influence and impact, and of course, inherent uncertainties in its behaviours and effects. In fact, no two El Niño events are exactly the same. Only with these tools of knowledge can information users critically sort the media hype from the fact, deal with conflict, rationalise uncertainty and El Niño Southern Oscillation vagaries, and ultimately realise the hope that forecasts offer for better decision-making in the long term. The close evaluation of extension strategies and the coordination of communication and extension efforts, including close liaison with the media, can help ensure that the "hope" which El Niño-based information/forecasting offers can be harnessed. This, however, should be executed without compromising the democratic principle of a free media, and should be open to the range of opinion being voiced and debated, without discrimination. It should be the aim of forecasters, communicators and extension operatives to effectively arm "users" with the knowledge, skills and support to rationally interpret and evaluate alternative forecasts and methodologies, and the inherent uncertainties and risks associated with the forecasts and outcomes. The principles of sustainable development command "access" and "equity" in the provision of information and extension, and in the realisation of its benefits. But of course lurking behind these ideals are the driving realities of short decision horizons, resource allocation priorities, irrationality, politics, commerce and kudos. Finally, the challenges described above are now faced by the newly formed Queensland Centre for Climate Applications. The Centre's charter, as reported amidst its full page promotion in the Queensland Country Life, includes pursuing the development of a "really vigorous" extension program in relation to climatic variability (QCL 26-3-98). The test of success will come with the next wobble of the El Niño Southern Oscillation system. Hype or hope?
Last updated 2 October 2006. For more information email admin@rgsq.org.au Return to home